29th Feb, 2008

King George “The Decider” also not an Economist

Hail to the King Baby! So, I am reading the news, and our King… cough… I mean President tells the nation during his press conference that county is not in a recession.

During a White House news conference Thursday morning, President Bush said the country is not headed into a recession, noting that the government has acted “robustly.”

- Huffington Post

Later in the conference we find out that he doesn’t even know that fuel prices (a strong inflationary force in our economy) have climbed to incredible heights. There are parts of the country now where gas exceeds $4 per gallon. This has got to be a major factor influencing the economy, and the man isn’t even aware of it.

In fact, when asked by a reporter about what advice he’d given an average American, who is faced by the prospect of $4 gallon gas, the President responded: “That’s interesting. I hadn’t heard that. … I know it’s high now.”

- Huffington Post

While already demonstrating that as President he currently knows nothing about either Leadership or Strategy, he has now demonstrated a basic lack of understanding of modern economics or even American psychology.

Lets lay it out here.

First: Consumer confidence and spending have some of the strongest effects on the economy. Consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of our economy. The strength of the economy begins with people’s perceptions of it, because those perceptions influence their spending decisions.

It is a self feeding cycle. You aren’t confident. You spend less. You spend less, companies sell less. Companies sell less, they higher less. Companies higher less, you don’t feel confident. Spread that across a lot of people, and that spells trouble. Simplistic for sure, but still applicable.

Hence why leaders are constantly telling you that things are rosy and happy. Bring out the kittens! Except that when the leader has about as much of the peoples trust and confidence as the owner of a jewelry seller would have of the attendees at a kleptomaniacs convention, people aren’t liable to believe said leader. The President currently enjoys an approval rating around 30%.

Lets face it, if he were to tell me the sky was blue, I would doubt it and think about getting my eyes checked.

Second: The man is clearly deluding himself if he is thinking there aren’t problems. US GDP Growth the previous quarter was 4.9%. This last quarter, 0.6%. That doesn’t look good to me.

Now, granted, a recession isn’t indicated unless we have two consecutive quarters of these numbers. Now, we have one, and the idea is to prevent another.

Three: If we are going to prevent another quarter of no GDP growth, we need to get the economy ticking along again right? That would seem logical. So, our government is leaping into action with a daring plan. They are going to give us our money back.

Seems ok at first, until you think about it. They are going to TAKE our money during the quarter they are trying to PREVENT a reduction in SPENDING, then they will give it back to us in 4 MONTHS, after the quarter they are trying to PREVENT a reduction in.

Am I the only one who sees the sheer illogic in this? Seriously. Tax time is coming. Everyone is going to be writing checks to the government is a few weeks. That means that right now, people are spending less to be able to write that check.

And the sadder thing is, when the refund check comes, the size of it is only going to be about $600 per taxpayer. Where will that money go? You got it. Bills! Paying back the loans on the money we already spent. I have read that some economist think that our debts might be the issue, but for most Americans, the small amount of money is not going to improve people’s debt picture. It might make a mortgage payment, or a credit card payment, but thats about it considering the average Americans debt profile.

The net result is that the current government response is a total and abject failure. Which doesn’t surprise me really because….

Four: During the whole press conference the thing the President was most concerned about was getting a Bill passed that will let the Government spy on it’s citizens without a warrant and provide retroactive immunity to the companies that broke the law while helping them circumvent our civil liberties.

I think I will go be sick now.

  
Mood : angry

Responses

I’d hate to tell you, but the majority of people who are driving the consumer pending aren’t writing the government checks this quarter. They are getting refunds on the no-interest loans they have given the government throughout the year. People writing checks to the government either haven’t planned properly or they are rich fucks paying tax bills from 4 years ago. Oh yeah, isn’t it funny how that works. If you don’t have a lot of money you have to pay your taxes as you go, but if you have a lot of money you can get accountants and lawyers who can defer those payments for years.

Like many things in this country, the current economic problems stem from the lowest common denominator’s dwindling amount of personal accountability. We’re becoming a socialist country based on patronization.

Education, health care and the housing market are all good examples this problem. Here’s an example from each…. A base form of national health care would be a good thing, most people think of it not as national health care, but free health care. Don’t believe the hype, health care is not free and if you can afford it you’ll be paying more then your fair share. Along those lines, people should have the ability to purchase a better plan if they can afford it. Housig market, if you made a bad investment or signed for a bad mortgage deal, sorry, but you lose your house. No bailouts! Not only do you lose your current house, but you lose the credit wothiness to buy another one for 5-10 years. I do think banks shoud find interesting ways to refinance some of these loans, its in everyone’s best interest. Education, most teachers particularly in the primary schools do not have the ability to retain a child without the parents permission. How stupid is this concept? No longer does a 1st grade teacher who has been doing their job for the past 20 years have the right to say who is ready for 2nd grade. Instead, the parents decide, which inevitably moves kids along who aren’t ready and they bring down the learning experience of those who are ready.

Enough for now, have fun.

I partially agree with you and partially disagree with you.

The majority of consumer spending indieed comes from people who have done a majority of their withholdings in conjunction with their W2 and paycheck. But a large number of people no longer fall under that category, as there are a good number of 1099 earners out there these days. Add in your other income taxes and a lot of people are paying something. But you are right, a majority is most likely counting on a refund.

But you haven’t addressed the underling point. The economic stimulus package can’t even begin to benefit anyone until after they receive the “stimulus” in June. As I wasn’t writing a detailed economic analysis, the simple “We are taking you taxes now, and giving them back to you later, when we should be doing something now and making up for it later” approach still holds true. Or are you telling me that the $600 check you are going to get in June will somehow turn the economy around, or are you going to do what most American will, and pay off some bills?

And while the average consumer debt is clearly a problem, corporate malfeasance and government stupidity are larger issues by far.

Lets use the housing market as a clear example. Sub prime lending is the current issue right? And what is it really, companies made BAD loans to people the SHOULDN”T HAVE GOTTEN THEM.

Do you blame the borrower or the lender. I say blame the lender. They knew the people wouldn’t be able to pay given their incomes, but they made the loans anyway.The average borrower is not in a position to determine what they can safely borrow to buy a home. That is the banks job, and they committed fraud to do it.

Do you penalize the borrower in that case. You argue yes. I argue no, and say that the complicit lenders need to be part of solving the problem.

I do recognize that the borrower has some part in the problem as well. But the idea of credit ratings, and debt analysis and loan applications is to ensure that the borrower can reasonably pay the loan back. If the process is corrupted, the blame can not rest solely on the borrower.

The real problem in my opinion, however, is the government. Frankly we have forgotten what makes the economy strong in this country. Instead of investing at the low end of the economy (the infrastructure) we invest at the top end, where it does the least good.

It’s like the pyramid got turned upside down. Instead of keeping the roads and bridges working, investing in more telecommunications equipment, better education, better health care, energy research and development, etc, we pay for an unwinable war and tax breaks to Exxon.

If we took the trillion dollars we spent on Iraq and invested it in schools alone, everyone in this country could go to college, and every school would be a Taj Mahal. Gas prices would be lower. Bridges wouldn’t be falling down. And our economy would be far more robust.

Your basic problem is that you live in some rosey world that hard working people will be rewarded and lazy people will get their just deserts. Except they are just people. You propose that the banks simply forclose on the hundreds of thousands of homes rather than work things out.

Lets look at the result of that choice. Millions of people lose there homes. Thats millions of people who now need to find places to live. Will require government assistance, etc. Meanwhile urban and suburban blight becomes an issue. After all, the banks won’t find anyone to BUY the forclosed properties. Banks can’t sell the properties, so now neighbourhoods across the country fall into decay. Meanwhile the banks have to write of billions in bad paper. This puts the banks on shaky footing. Many fail, which means more billions in bailout money from the government. This means more national debt (already out of control). More debt means even weaker US Dollar. Etc. etc. etc.

Or… maybe you take your “They fucked up, so to bad for them” attitude, put it away, and try and come up with realistic and reasonable solutions to the problem that aren’t based on ideology, and are instead based on reason and don’t involve destroying the economy.

Hey mittop, I can’t believe I’m going to do this, but KoC actually agreed with you that the lenders should help work out the sub-prime nonsense. Ok, now that I’ve just defended KoC, I need a shower in my own liberal bias…

(showering…i.e. watching Keith Olbermann)

ok, I’m better now.

I believe the current argument for Iraq is that we’re trying to stabilize the region to keep energy costs under control (I would argue that we’re failing in both areas). I agree with you that those tax dollars should be spent differently (education being a big one).

Until “no child left behind” is gone (which raised standards and lowered funding), I don’t see the education system getting fixed. It’s not that the teachers can’t keep the kids back, it’s that the state can’t afford keeping that kid in a classroom for another year…especially if that student is part of a voucher program.

blaming the lower class for the current economy is like blaming a kid with a broken bone for their own child abuse. I hate the argument that “being poor is a choice” because it’s simply not true. I want to see someone divest themselves of all earlthly posessions and try to start over with next to nothing, then tell me that poverty is a choice.

perhaps I should try it myself…

Two people are responsible for a bad loan as much as two people are responsible for a bad marriage. You have to punish both the lender and the borrower. You’re letting the borrowers off the hook without penalty and that’s wrong. Its not the guy with one house that’s causing the housing problem. Its the guy who bought one house flipped it for a profit and is now holding six houses one interest only loans and can’t sell or rent any of them.

Your comment about spending a trillion on schools alone is way more naive I would expect from you.

The tone of your entire comment is what bugs me, its a finger pointing blame this one or that one, never a look in the mirror to see what I can correct attitude. Giving companies tax breaks is a way to spur the economy, except you have to set parameters around it. I can’t believe I’m using India as an example of economic policy, but they give IT companies a tax break as long as they use x% of their profits into Indian infrastructure. As discussed in my class on Wednesday, hedgefunds essentially legally don’t pay taxes by shifting funds offshore and deferring their tax liability. We can’t close the loophole, because the rich are the ones benefitting and making the laws. Go ahead and throw a huge tax on Exxon and watch everyone bitch as their 401ks get creamed.

By the way, the price of oil isn’t our nations problem. The fact that my 1989 Chevy S-10 got 30-35 mpg and you can’t find a truck to come close to that today is the problem.

Your roads and bridges argument is funny too, especially from a person within one mile from the biggest of big government in the modern era. Not only did everyone who built it have their hand in the cookie jar, but they cut so many corners they did a shitty job. They killed one person already and it needs hundreds of millions of dollars of repairs beause things weren’t built properly in the first place. Brilliant! Not to mention the guys who plow the streets get paid overtime to sleep on the job and then cry when they talk about putting GPS on their trucks. The whole system is f’d up.

Everyone wants something for nothing. By the way where’s my 60″ flatscreen? I paid my bills last month figured the government should give me something in return.

Where was it ever said that the poor are to blame for the economies problems? Everyone who is an active participant is to blame. Please don’t take my shot at bad loans as meaning the poor, because I’m most upset with the dumb suburbanites who have a 2500sq/ft, 4bd house and 2 SUVs that now can’t pay their bills then someone signing for a 150k starter home in Mississippi. They are both wrong for getting themselves into a bad situation and the lenders are just as much at fault. And if you think that no one will come and buy the foreclosed property you’re nuts, I’d buy many a property for $0.40 on the dollar, which is what needs to happen. You got excess inventory, put it on sale.

KoC - I was referring more to this comment:

“Like many things in this country, the current economic problems stem from the lowest common denominator’s dwindling amount of personal accountability”

to me, “lowest common denominator” seemed like a cheap shot at the poor…but I guess it could also mean anyone who takes first without considering the consequences… which opens up the discussion considerably.

“Lowest common denominator” is not meant to refer to the poor. Its meant to refer to the overwhelming amount of people in this country including everyone currently residing at 49 2nd St., who feel they are entitled to certain aspects of their life. Whether its a college kid who doesn’t think its important to clean their room, a union worker who feels the company owes them a good living, people who have no insurance and expect the government to rebuild their house, a hip-hop artist who should be allowed to slap his hos, they all feel entitled and not that they need to earn what they get. There’s your lowest common denominator biatch!

I live in one the communities here in Florida where people are losing their houses everyday. However, 90% of them don’t even live there. A lot of these 2nd home investors were buying their second home as an investment for a quick turnover. On a street of 25 houses, 50% of them are rented. 4 have been forclosed on. 2 of them have been purchased for pennies on the dollar.

Yes, there are people who took a loan out that was part of the subprime and are going to lose their first house. Of that %, there were people who should have never taken out a loan.

I can site an example. My neighbor behind me purchased a $325,000 house 2 years ago. She is an assistant manager at a dollar general. Not sure how much disposable income she had but I am sure it wasn’t a lot. She lost her home. She also destroyed the house because she couldn’t even pay someone to cut the grass yet alone buy a lawnmower. Trust me, it looked like a jungle there last summer. If she was making $40,000 a year what the hell was she doing buying the house. Is it her fault? It is her fault and it is the loan companies fault. She should have never been lent the money but at the same time she should have known what flexible interest rates are. Pleading ignorance is not an excuse. If a drunk driver gets into a car and kills 4 people and then says he didn’t know that drinking impared his driving we don’t bail him out of jail and let him keep driving. Are they the same scenarios. No…but ignorance is not an excuse.

Americans want someone to wipe the ass for everything. I’m sorry but its about time people took ownership for the actions. Your an idiot who doesn’t udnerstand math, guess what, you lose your shit and you learn from you mistake. There are always ways to re-establish you credit.

Face it, not everyone can be smart.

Also, everyone talks about no child left behind. We spend more money every year on education. Every year they throw money at the problem hoping to fix it. The problem isn’t money. The problem is gov’t and teacher unions. Everyone thinks, oh the kid failed because the school is under funded. Nobody looks at, well the teacher might not be doing their job. I can tell you that education doesn’t take a lot of money. My father went to school in a one room school house. He learned and became a teacher. He grew up in the depression and literally had no shoes for school.

Money is not supposed to be generated by the federal gov’t and giving to the schools. It is supposed to be done on the local and state level. This is why people are looking at private education and home schooling more and more. They don’t like the national education (NEA). Parents don’t even have control of what their kids learn.

The only way education can work in today’s society is competition. Failure should be punished buy firing these stupid teachers. Board up the schools and give vouchers. Why do you think more and more African Americans want vouchers. They know the system doesn’t work.

Someone who says the poor cannot succeed is full of shit. AGain, my father came from nothing. His mother use to beat the shit out of him everyday. His father was missing in action and this was during the depression. Plus he ran away from home at 14. Before all these bull shit (FUCKING) social programs. All of his brothers and sister turned out fine. So you say that an poor person cannot change their life. The choice is within. Take responsibility for yourself.

Look, kick me in the nuts, rape me a few times and leave me on a street corner with no money. I’ll tell you what. I’ll pick myself up and I’ll make something of myself. I won’t blame everyone except for the assholes who did it to me. I’ll find them and slit throughts with my McGyver pocket knife.

PEACE OUT

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