6th Dec, 2006

Up With Science! Down with Right Wing Nutcase!

I wish to give todays ignorant right wing conservative douche bag of the year award to the less than honorable Sen. Joe Barton (R) of, you guessed it, the *sarcasm* environmentally friendly and not so oil rich state of Texas *sarcasm*.

In this article on Think Progress, Barton goes on to say how he would block any efforts to control green house gas emissions because…

Barton says his action is justified because global warming science is “pretty weak stuff.” Barton added, “But for us to try to step in and say we have got to do all these global things to prevent the Earth from getting any warmer in my opinion is absolute nonsense. It’s not going to happen.”

“Ah pesky climate science, you and your bastard cousin evolution are constantly getting in the way of the ignorant thoughts of God fearing men and women around the world. Next you’ll tell me that we all descended from apes or parameciums or something. Now, go get my illegal immigrant maid to bring me a double martini while I go vote on a flag burning amendment, yehaw!” - Imagined quote of the “Honorable” Sen. Burton, not actually known to have been said

———– Read More: Below the fold ——————-

Of course, pesky science does get in the way. Historical reconstruction of temperature data goes back, with some confidence, around a thousand years. An interesting chart displaying this can be seen below.

Climate Chart
Source: Michael Mann image, news@nature.com And before you argue about the science behind the chart too much, check out this.

Here is my quick interpretation of the graph. The early data (to the left) shows higher uncertainty because of the data because of the wide variety of sources, and the relatively lower accuracy of the measurements. As we move to the right, the uncertainty of the measurements decrease so the gray bands “tighten”. By the time we reach the late 1800s, the confidence is much higher. Temperatures are rising, significantly.

But hey, don’t take my word for it, we can look at a simple summary of the general review of this climate data summarized by

National Research Council Report

At the request of the U.S. Congress, a special “Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Past 2,000 Years” was assembled by the National Research Council’s Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. The Committee published its report in 2006. [24] The report summarizes its main findings as follows:[25]

  • The instrumentally measured warming of about 0.6°C during the 20th century is also reflected in borehole temperature measurements, the retreat of glaciers, and other observational evidence, and can be simulated with climate models.
  • Large-scale surface temperature reconstructions yield a generally consistent picture of temperature trends during the preceding millennium, including relatively warm conditions centered around A.D. 1000 (identified by some as the “Medieval Warm Period”) and a relatively cold period (or “Little Ice Age”) centered around 1700. The existence and extent of a Little Ice Age from roughly 1500 to 1850 is supported by a wide variety of evidence including ice cores, tree rings, borehole temperatures, glacier length records, and historical documents. Evidence for regional warmth during medieval times can be found in a diverse but more limited set of records including ice cores, tree rings, marine sediments, and historical sources from Europe and Asia, but the exact timing and duration of warm periods may have varied from region to region, and the magnitude and geographic extent of the warmth are uncertain.
  • It can be said with a high level of confidence that global mean surface temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries. This statement is justified by the consistency of the evidence from a wide variety of geographically diverse proxies.
  • Less confidence can be placed in large-scale surface temperature reconstructions for the period from A.D. 900 to 1600. Presently available proxy evidence indicates that temperatures at many, but not all, individual locations were higher during the past 25 years than during any period of comparable length since A.D. 900. The uncertainties associated with reconstructing hemispheric mean or global mean temperatures from these data increase substantially backward in time through this period and are not yet fully quantified.
  • Very little confidence can be assigned to statements concerning the hemispheric mean or global mean surface temperature prior to about A.D. 900 because of sparse data coverage and because the uncertainties associated with proxy data and the methods used to analyze and combine them are larger than during more recent time periods
  • There is of course room for debate on the causes of warming, but the fact that there is serious warming outside the norm is tough to argue against. And warming is going to cause all sorts of problems for us. For a great starting point to learn more, check out this great wikipedia article.

      
    Mood : cynical

Responses

I guess since this is a blog you don’t have to be objective. Yes, it is warmer. Green house gases are one of the reasons. Another one would be the difference in population between 1000 AD and now. The fact that there is heat in Alaska and air conditioning in Arizona is another. We are manipulating our climate to make it what we want, which is not good for the environment. Also, I don’t buy most of the data you’ve presented. We have no idea what temperature it was in 1642. Your views on this seem very narrow and you have a particular agenda for some reason.

I’m rambling, but then again it fits with this previous post.

Cool, a comment!!!!

I am trying to be objective, the points I made were in order…

1) Republican Senators like this routinely ignore even discussing the issue. Climate science is at least science, and not posturing rhetoric. It should be open for review and discussion, not outright ignorance based on political beliefs. Barton doesn’t argue against Carbon Dioxide, he argues that the whole concept of warming is b.s..

2) Recent Data has better accuracy than old data.

3) We are able to make reasonable inference of temperature data going back to 1000AD. The studies highlighting the validity of this data/methodology are numerous, but include..
- dendrochronology (use of tree rings)
- isotopic (study of radioisotope ratios in things like ice, geologic formations, sea corals, etc)
- qualitative reconstruction (use of historical records like crop data, sea ice logs in harbors, food store information, etc)
- Assorted Statistical Techniques
This research has been peer reviewed and generally accepted.

4) The causes of warming are not confirmed and are open to debate, but warming is occurring (at least as measured over the last 10 centuries.

5) I don’t point toward any specific cause other than a strong correlation between increased human industrial activities and increasing temperatures. I don’t know if it is carbon, air conditioning, other stuff, or a combination ( lean towards combination). They are all caused by people though. All merit study.

Further Comments: Your comments indicate at least the concept that man is having an influence on climate (are geographic distribution is wider, with much higher densities). We use climate altering technologies. Green house gases are having an impact. Your disbelief in climate data from 1600s (though data from the 1800s plus must be consider a bit more reliable, as that was when accurate temperature measurements via instruments began to become more available, though it should be noted that early work was performed by The Royal Historical Society in the late 1600s) is immaterial, as there is a great deal of reasoned peer review literature, as seen from this list.

Conclusion: I do have an agenda with this post. I hate when our current administration takes a position without looking at any real science. I am willing to accept the possibility that the climate is fine and nothing is going on, but a look at the science behind the idea says that it is not necessarily the case. Gut feelings are meaningless, cause our gut is often wrong. I tend to trust data and people who have devoted years of study to the concept.

When I am sick, I don’t go to my class president, I go to a doctor. The class president may have an opinion, it might even be a good one, but the doctor has years of training and experience. QED.

I close with this…

Glacier National Park, 1938

Glacier National Park, 1981

Glacier National Park, 1988

Glacier National Park, 2005

Your picture example is at best blurry. First, what time of year were all of these taken? Size of area in question? How much ice does that really represent? Is it a picture of something the size of a pond that in 1938 had 2ft of ice in the middle of winter vs 2005 in the summer. I’m not saying the pictures are wrong, just that they lack valuable information. Sort of like the rest of the “The earth is going to melt” radical left wing(i.e. Al Gore) argument.

The picture is illustrative, and taken in context. But, to answer your questions, glaciers do not behave in the way you infer. The pictures don’t lack valuable information, I lack information. I didn’t write the report those came from. But if you must know more….

From USGS Repeat Photography Project:
The Repeat Photography Project began in 1997 with a systematic search of the archives at Glacier National Park. We began searching for historic photographs of glaciers in the vast collection that spans over a century. Many high quality photographs exist from the parks’ early photographers such as Morton Elrod, T.J. Hileman, Ted Marble, F.E. Matthes, and others who scoured the park to publicize it’s beauty and earn their livings. Copies of the historic photos were taken in the field to help determine the exact location of the original photograph. Photographing the glaciers cannot occur until the previous winter’s snow has melted on the glacial ice and when air quality conditions are considered at least good. This creates a narrow window in the northern clime of Glacier National Park where smoke from forest fires prevented photography on many occasions in the past few years. Since 1997 over sixty photographs have been repeated of seventeen different glaciers. Thirteen of those glaciers have shown marked recession and some of the more intensely studied glaciers have proved to be just 1/3 of their estimated maximum size that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age (circa 1850). In fact, only 26 named glaciers presently exist of the 150 glaciers present in 1850 and those that do are mere remnants of their previous size. Other glaciers, such as Piegan Glacier, have remained visibly unchanged as a result of their north- northeast aspect and tendency to accumulate wind deposited snow along the Continental Divide. The photos of Piegan Glacier though, record dramatic change in foreground vegetation in response to climate change factors such as change in wildfire frequency and infestation of white pine blister rust. Close inspection of the photo pairs in this collection reveal many changes on a more subtle level than the obvious size reduction in glacial ice – see what changes you can detect.

From USGS Glacier National Park Monitoring Project
Glacier National Park has approximately 50 small glaciers. Some of these glaciers are relatively well known, having attracted the scientific attention of the first park advocates in 1887. Only 37 named glaciers existed in 1968 which met USGS criteria as perennial snow-ice masses larger than 0.1 km2. Ground measurements of glacier margins and termini were made sporadically on several glaciers by the National Park Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and several universities but ended by 1979. No comprehensive park-wide glacier monitoring program was ever established but excellent summaries by Johnson (1980) and Carrara (1989) focused on available data for the most-studied glaciers. The glaciers have receded since they were first described in 1901, and tree-ring studies indicate that glacial retreat began about 1850. At that time there were more than 150 glaciers within Glacier National Park.

These glaciers are direct remnants from a period of glacier formation ending about 11,000 years ago. The largest of these range in size from Jackson Glacier (1.02 km2) and Blackfoot Glacier (1.74 km2 ) to Gem Glacier (6 ha). Because of their relatively low elevations (1695 - 3008 m) for glaciers in the northern Rockies and their inland geographic location, these small glaciers are highly sensitive to global climate change. The glaciers can provide an integrated signal of consistent shifts in regional weather patterns. These glaciers also constitute an important link in studying region-wide glacier dynamics because they are on a north-south gradient along the continental divide extending from Canada to Colorado. Additionally, glaciers are of inherent interest to park visitors because of the role glaciers played in shaping the landscape of present-day Glacier National Park.

Glacial fluctuations in Glacier National Park have been studied, with published reports dating back to 1914 and as recently as 1989 with USGS Bulletin 1902, by Paul Carrara, which summarized most of the glacial history for the park. From these studies, the glaciers of Glacier National Park appear to be excellent barometers of climate change. For instance, there was a drastic rate of glacial retreat during the period from 1920-1940 when this region had above average summer temperatures and below average annual precipitation. From 1960-1979, several of the larger glaciers advanced very slightly during a period of greater precipitation and lower temperatures. Thus, long-term reductions in glacier size reflect long-term increases in average temperature and/or reductions in winter snow.

The National Park Service made measurements of glaciers at various times during the 1930-1940 period and independent research scientists, USGS scientists, and others have made similar measurements in the course of carrying out a large body of related research during the 1970s. Given the significant historical research activity and relatively large information base on glaciers for the Glacier National Park region, the potential exists for a glacier monitoring program here to contribute to broader documentation of climate change.

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